The ongoing conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran is intensifying as each side carefully assesses their firepower capabilities, including missiles, bombs, drones, and defensive resources. Iran is pursuing a strategy of attrition, aiming to prolong the conflict regardless of the escalating casualties, which have already surpassed 1,000.
Iran is also targeting the economies of neighboring Gulf States to exert pressure, striking various civilian and industrial sites in addition to causing casualties. The country possesses a limited inventory of missiles, rockets, and drones with varying levels of sophistication, making them challenging to counter effectively. For instance, engaging low-flying, slow drones may not always necessitate advanced weaponry like expensive missiles, posing challenges for defense forces.
Recent engagements in Jordan involved UK Typhoons and F-35B jets successfully intercepting drones using tactics like decoys. Alternatively, a cost-efficient approach could involve utilizing attack helicopters armed with conventional machine guns for drone defense. As the conflict progresses, the US and Israel are mindful of conserving their defensive missile reserves due to finite supplies.
Iran’s missile stockpile has significantly diminished since the conflict began, forcing them to moderate their rate of fire. However, both the US and Israel are wary of a prolonged conflict that could deplete their defensive capabilities. Western officials suggest that Iran may sustain missile attacks for several more days, potentially extending to weeks, with a likelihood of resorting to asymmetric warfare through terror activities if necessary.
There is a strategic calculation on Iran’s part to outlast the interceptors deployed by Israel and the US, with the hope of forcing a cessation of hostilities. The conflicting parties aim to achieve perceived victories, with Iran challenging the US and Israel while the latter pursue strategic aims. These potential outcomes carry substantial human and economic costs, affecting global stability.
Former Israeli military intelligence personnel estimate Iran’s missile inventory at the conflict’s onset, highlighting the need for Iran to ration its resources for a sustained conflict. The expectation is for Iran to continue launching attacks, potentially targeting energy facilities in the region, with Israel potentially concluding the conflict if defensive capabilities become strained.