Australian researchers have developed a groundbreaking online tool to predict the climate impact of fossil fuel projects, with a Canadian offshore oil venture serving as a test case. The tool, known as Carbon Impacts Tracer, can forecast how proposed mines, offshore oil platforms, or energy projects will contribute to global warming, glacier melting, and potential human fatalities.

According to Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, the tool connects emissions from individual fossil fuel projects to their specific contributions to planetary warming and subsequent impacts. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project proposals and referencing peer-reviewed studies, the tool calculates the projected effects on global temperature rise, including coral reef degradation, reduced food production, and job losses.

The Carbon Impacts Tracer platform was launched with case studies on various Australian projects, a U.K. initiative, and the potential Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada. The Bay du Nord project, led by Equinor, is anticipated to extract over 430 million barrels of oil reserves. The tool estimates that the project could generate 188 megatonnes of CO2 emissions over two decades, resulting in a minimal temperature increase globally.

Furthermore, the tool predicts that the emissions from Bay du Nord could expose over 111,000 individuals to extreme heat and lead to 25 heat-related deaths in Europe. It also anticipates approximately 4.6 square kilometers of glacier loss and a rise in sea levels by 0.025 millimeters. Additionally, the project’s pollution could result in the loss of 2,100 jobs and push nearly 9,800 people into extreme poverty.

While Equinor did not provide an immediate comment, Joel Finnis, a climatologist at Memorial University, emphasized the tool’s importance in highlighting the environmental consequences of projects like Bay du Nord. Maria Nawaz from the University of New South Wales emphasized the tool’s potential to strengthen climate litigation efforts by directly linking fossil fuel projects to tangible warming and associated harms.

Nawaz suggested that governments, regulators, and the public could benefit from using the tracer to evaluate proposed projects within their communities, potentially influencing climate litigation and risk assessments by insurers and economists. The tool currently focuses on projected developments and aims to include more proposals as additional data becomes accessible.