Andy Burnham’s decision to enter the Gorton and Denton by-election left Keir Starmer facing difficult choices. Allowing Burnham to run risked fueling speculation of a potential leadership challenge and clearing the path for it, given that only MPs can contest for the leadership position.
The added challenge of a possible mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, coupled with upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May, could spell trouble for Labour. Poor results in these elections may pose a significant threat to Starmer, with contenders like Burnham eyeing the top leadership role.
The alternative route, taken by the PM, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the costs to taxpayers and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming elections in May. While this move may eliminate immediate threats, it could have negative long-term consequences.
Following the news, MPs expressed frustration, accusing Labour’s ruling body of manipulation. Burnham risks becoming a symbol for dissatisfied backbenchers who view the decision as excessive control from Downing Street. The Parliamentary party has already shown a willingness to rebel, and further agitations could complicate Starmer’s position.
Some suggest that allowing Burnham to run would have been a bolder move, and blocking him may make Starmer appear weaker. The PM’s camp has been critical of potential leadership challengers like Wes Streeting, and now Burnham has been sidelined. Opinions vary on whether these actions demonstrate strength or vulnerability, but many lean towards the latter.
Supporters of the PM argue that the decision regarding Burnham should put an end to internal disputes that the public is weary of. Nevertheless, until Starmer can boost Labour’s declining poll ratings, doubts about his leadership may persist.
While Burnham has critics who claim he prioritizes personal ambitions over his constituents in Greater Manchester, his popularity and reputation outside of Westminster are undeniable, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Despite Labour’s comfortable victory in Gorton in 2024, the party faces a challenge to retain the seat against Reform’s efforts and the Green Party’s pressure from the left. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the election outcome, signaling potential trouble for Labour if they lose the by-election.
The stakes are high, and any loss for Labour in the upcoming by-election could have serious consequences.