Keir Starmer has returned from his trip to the Far East, where he successfully negotiated important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, the trip to Beijing went smoothly without any major issues, much to the relief of No10. Now, the focus shifts back to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.

Scheduled for February 26, the by-election in the traditionally safe Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will determine the successor to the recently resigned MP, Andrew Gwynne. The decision by the Labour governing body to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster has been viewed as a risky move by some MPs, who fear a potential backlash if the seat is lost.

Amid concerns and uncertainties, there is a sense of optimism among certain Labour members regarding the upcoming by-election. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the government’s recent judicial reforms, expressed confidence after discussions with deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell about the ground situation in the constituency.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice emphasized the unpredictable nature of the upcoming by-election, highlighting the involvement of key players such as Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party. The shifting dynamics of the constituency, once considered a safe Labour stronghold, have added an element of intrigue to the electoral contest.

Luke Tryl, another polling expert, noted that the by-election is shaping up to be a competitive race primarily between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with tactical voting potentially playing a crucial role in the outcome. Voter sentiments and strategic choices will likely influence the final result, with the shadow of Nigel Farage and Reform UK looming large over the electoral landscape.

As the by-election approaches, the strategic decisions of voters, particularly those leaning towards left-leaning parties, will play a significant role in determining the outcome. The question of how to prevent Reform UK from emerging victorious remains a central concern for many voters, leading to a sense of tactical uncertainty in the run-up to the crucial electoral battle.