The El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen further until 2027 and may become the most potent on record, heightening the risk of extreme weather events next year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. “If the current trend persists, it could surpass any previous occurrences since our monitoring began, exceeding the scales we have utilized for the past forty years,” stated Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO, during a press briefing in Geneva.
The UN weather agency indicated a high probability that El Niño will endure until February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty in the forecast is unprecedented, according to the WMO. A robust El Niño can lead to significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, contributing to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
“El Niño is undergoing a remarkable intensification. The scientific evidence is unequivocal: the planet is venturing into uncharted territory, and these uncharted waters are warming up,” remarked United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to twelve months, causing intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO stated that it is anticipated to peak later this year, with repercussions extending into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures in the following year, as noted by Saulo.
Saulo emphasized that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of the heightened El Niño activity. “WMO is dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian organizations to provide essential climate intelligence and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” she affirmed.