The expense of maintaining the US carrier strike force near Iran is escalating daily, currently estimated at a minimum of £6 million per day. The escalating militarization against Iran poses potential political risks for US President Donald Trump. Besides the deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln’s F-35 and Super Hornet aircraft, additional F-15 squadrons and stealth bombers have been positioned in the Middle East.
With tens of thousands of US troops on high alert in the region, Israel is prepared for potential conflict with Iran, evident in recent actions against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Despite ongoing negotiations, the situation appears to be moving towards a military confrontation, although Trump’s true intentions remain unclear. There is a slim chance of limited military actions or no attack at all, contingent on Iran providing assurances of abandoning its nuclear program.
The Iranian regime is unlikely to make such commitments, even with the presence of the US naval force nearby, as it would risk losing credibility gained from past confrontations. Trump, who initially issued strong warnings to Iran amid domestic unrest, now demands negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations. Balancing protection for protesters with targeted airstrikes poses a challenge in avoiding civilian casualties and preventing Iran from stoking anti-US sentiments.
Questions arise about the effectiveness of previous strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the rationale for potential repeated attacks. Amid rumors of internal dissent within the security apparatus, the feasibility of achieving regime change and gaining support remains uncertain. Trump faces a critical decision on the looming specter of war and the continued military buildup in the region.
While the massive deployment of military resources suggests a readiness for offensive action, recent statements from Iranian officials indicate a willingness to engage in diplomatic solutions. The Iranian regime, under pressure and seeking a resolution, struggles to meet US demands on nuclear compliance and protester rights to avert a military clash.
Failure to secure the desired commitments would be a significant setback for Trump, potentially forcing him to authorize military action, although the scale of any offensive remains uncertain. The Iranian regime’s precarious position underscores the urgency for negotiations to prevent a catastrophic outcome.